# ROI & Business Case Report

> **Project Name:** [XX Project] — ROI & Business Case
> **Sponsor:** [Organization Name]
> **Date:** [YYYY-MM-DD]
> **Version:** V[X.X]

---

## Table of Contents

1. [Executive Summary](#1-executive-summary)
2. [Strategic Case](#2-strategic-case)
3. [Economic Case](#3-economic-case)
4. [Financial Case](#4-financial-case)
5. [Commercial Case](#5-commercial-case)
6. [Management Case](#6-management-case)
7. [Sensitivity Analysis](#7-sensitivity-analysis)
8. [Conclusions & Recommendations](#8-conclusions--recommendations)
9. [Appendices](#9-appendices)

---

## 1. Executive Summary

### 1.1 Project Snapshot

| Basic Information | |
|-------------------|---|
| Project name | [Full name] |
| Project type | [New build / Upgrade / Platform build / AI application / …] |
| Requested amount | [€XX M] (CAPEX: [€XX M] + OPEX: [€XX M]) |
| Delivery period | [YYYY-MM — YYYY-MM], [X] months total |
| Project manager | [Name / title] |
| Project ID | [Internal project ID] |

### 1.2 Core Financial Indicators at a Glance

| Indicator | Value | Industry Benchmark | Assessment |
|-----------|-------|--------------------|------------|
| **Net Present Value (NPV)** | [€XX M] | >0 | [✅ Viable / ❌ Not viable] |
| **Internal Rate of Return (IRR)** | [XX.X%] | >[8%/10%/12%] | [✅ Excellent / ⚠️ Moderate] |
| **Payback (static)** | [X.X] yrs | <[5] yrs | [✅ Reasonable / ⚠️ Long] |
| **Payback (discounted)** | [X.X] yrs | <[7] yrs | [✅ Reasonable / ⚠️ Long] |
| **Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR)** | [X.X] | >1.0 | [✅ Viable] |
| **5-Year ROI** | [XX%] | >[XX%] | [✅ Excellent] |
| **Break-even** | Year [X] | — | — |

### 1.3 Overall Assessment

[1–2 paragraphs summarizing the investment value: strategic alignment, economic benefit, social benefit, safety benefit, and risk controllability.]

> **Conclusion:** [✅ Recommend project launch / ⚠️ Launch after XX condition met / ❌ Do not recommend launch]

---

## 2. Strategic Case

### 2.1 Industry Benchmarking

| Standard / Regulation | Issuer | Date | Alignment with this project |
|-----------------------|--------|------|------------------------------|
| [National transport strategy] | [National authority] | 2019.09 | [How it aligns] |
| [Digital transport development plan] | [Regulator] | 202X.XX | [How it aligns] |
| [Regional smart-mobility plan] | [Regional transport dept] | 202X.XX | [How it aligns] |
| [Group / corporate XX strategy] | [Internal] | 202X.XX | [How it aligns] |

### 2.2 Strategic Alignment

| Strategic Objective | Project Contribution | Degree |
|---------------------|----------------------|--------|
| [Objective 1] | [How the project supports it] | [Direct / Indirect] |
| [Objective 2] | [How] | [Direct / Indirect] |
| [Objective 3] | [How] | [Direct / Indirect] |

### 2.3 What If We Do Nothing? (Do-Nothing Scenario)

[Describe the consequences 3–5 years out if the project is not implemented. Quantify where possible.]

| Impact Dimension | Current | Year 3 (no investment) | Year 5 (no investment) |
|------------------|---------|------------------------|------------------------|
| Operating cost | [€XX M/yr] | [+X%/yr → €XX M] | [+X%/yr → €XX M] |
| Service level | [Current] | [Degrades to …] | [Degrades to …] |
| Safety risk | [Current] | [Rises] | [Rises significantly] |
| Competitiveness | [Current] | [Lags industry] | [Severely lags] |
| Compliance risk | [Compliant] | [Possible non-compliance] | [Penalty risk] |

### 2.4 Alternative Analysis

| Option | Description | Investment | Pros / Cons | vs. Recommended |
|--------|-------------|------------|-------------|-----------------|
| **Option 0 (baseline)** | Status quo, no investment | 0 | [Pros/Cons] | [Compare] |
| **Option 1 (minimum)** | [Minimum viable] | [€XX M] | [Pros/Cons] | [Compare] |
| **Option 2 (recommended)** | [This option] | [€XX M] | [Pros/Cons] | — |
| **Option 3 (maximum)** | [Forward-leaning] | [€XX M] | [Pros/Cons] | [Compare] |

---

## 3. Economic Case

### 3.1 Economic Benefits (directly quantifiable financial gains)

#### 3.1.1 Cost Savings

| Saving Category | Logic | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5-Yr Total |
|-----------------|-------|----|----|----|----|----|------------|
| **Labor cost saving** | — | — | — | — | — | — | [XXX] |
| — Fewer toll operators [XX] | [XX] × [€Xk/yr] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| — Fewer inspection staff [XX] | [XX] × [€Xk/yr] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| — Fewer data-entry staff [XX] | [XX] × [€Xk/yr] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| **O&M cost saving** | — | — | — | — | — | — | [XXX] |
| — Preventive maintenance cuts emergency repairs | [XX fewer/yr] × [€Xk] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| — Electricity saving (smart control) | [XX M kWh] × [€X/kWh] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| — Lower IT O&M outsourcing | [−X%/yr] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| **Procurement cost saving** | — | — | — | — | — | — | [XXX] |
| — Central procurement lowers price | [€XX B spend × X% saved] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| **Other savings** | — | — | — | — | — | — | [XXX] |
| **Cost savings subtotal** | — | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXXX]** |

#### 3.1.2 Revenue Growth

| Growth Category | Logic | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5-Yr Total |
|-----------------|-------|----|----|----|----|----|------------|
| Toll leakage reduction | [€XX B toll × X% leakage cut] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| New business revenue | [XX service live, €XX M/yr] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| Ads / data service revenue | [Digital platform data services] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| Asset utilization uplift | [Idle assets monetized] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| **Revenue subtotal** | — | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXXX]** |

#### 3.1.3 Economic Benefit Summary

| Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5-Yr Total |
|------|----|----|----|----|----|------------|
| Cost savings | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXXX] |
| Revenue growth | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXXX] |
| **Total economic benefit** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXXX]** |

### 3.2 Social Benefit (public / common good)

| Benefit Category | Description | Quantified Metric | Measurement |
|------------------|-------------|-------------------|-------------|
| **Mobility experience** | Less congestion, shorter travel time | Avg travel time −[X]% | [Travel survey / data] |
| | Better info service | Public satisfaction → [XX%] | [Survey / app rating] |
| **Safety improvement** | Lower crash rate | Crashes per 10k veh −[X]% | [Crash stats] |
| | Faster emergency response | Avg response −[X] min | [Emergency system data] |
| **Environmental contribution** | Lower emissions | −[XXX] t CO₂ / yr | [Carbon accounting] |
| | Lower noise | −[X] dB along corridor | [Env. monitoring] |
| **Industry spillover** | Local digital-industry growth | [XX] high-skill jobs created | [Talent stats] |
| **Service equity** | Narrow urban-rural mobility gap | [Metric] | [Survey] |
| **Employment impact** | Staff needing reskilling | [XX] to be redeployed | [HR assessment] |

> **Note:** Monetary valuation of social benefits (value of time, value of statistical life, carbon price, etc.) is in Appendix B.

### 3.3 Safety Benefit

| Benefit Category | Current | Target (post-project) | Improvement |
|------------------|---------|----------------------|-------------|
| Crashes per 10k veh | [X.X] | [X.X] | −[X]% |
| Incident detection time | Avg [XX] min | Avg [XX] sec (AI auto-detect) | −[XX%] |
| Emergency response time | Avg [XX] min | Avg [XX] min | −[XX%] |
| Secondary crash rate | [XX]% | [XX]% | −[XX] pts |
| Cybersecurity incidents | [X]/yr | [X]/yr | −[XX%] |

### 3.4 Benefit Realization Plan

| Benefit | Starts | Ramp-up Complete | Prerequisite | Owner |
|--------|--------|------------------|--------------|-------|
| [Labor cost saving] | [Go-live +3 mo] | [12 mo post] | [Reskilling complete] | [HR / Ops] |
| [Revenue growth — XX] | [6 mo post] | [18 mo post] | [Marketing support] | [Marketing / Biz] |
| [Safety benefit] | [Go-live day] | [6 mo post (model tuned)] | [Data accumulated] | [Safety / Tech] |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

---

## 4. Financial Case

### 4.1 Investment Estimate

#### 4.1.1 CAPEX Detail

| No. | Item | Spec / Description | Qty | Unit Price (€k) | Amount (€k) |
|-----|------|--------------------|-----|-----------------|-------------|
| **1** | **Hardware** | | | | **[XXX]** |
| 1.1 | [Server] | [Spec] | [X] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| 1.2 | [Network gear] | [Switch / router / firewall] | [X] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| 1.3 | [Storage] | [Spec] | [X] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| 1.4 | [IoT terminal / sensor] | [Spec] | [X] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| 1.5 | [GPU / NPU server] | [Spec] | [X] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| **2** | **Software license** | | | | **[XXX]** |
| 2.1 | [OS license] | [Windows / Linux / open-source] | [X] | [X.X] | [XX] |
| 2.2 | [DB license] | [Oracle / PostgreSQL / open-source] | [X] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| 2.3 | [Middleware license] | [MQ / ESB / …] | [X] | [XX] | [XX] |
| 2.4 | [Core platform license] | [XX platform] | [X] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| 2.5 | [AI platform / model license] | [XX] | [X] | [XX] | [XX] |
| **3** | **Implementation & Dev** | | | | **[XXX]** |
| 3.1 | [Custom dev] | [XX module] | [X] pm | [X] | [XXX] |
| 3.2 | [System integration] | [Link XX systems] | [X] pm | [X] | [XXX] |
| 3.3 | [Data migration] | [XX system → new platform] | [X] pm | [X] | [XX] |
| 3.4 | [Deployment] | [Install / config / debug] | [X] pm | [X] | [XXX] |
| 3.5 | [Testing] | [Func / perf / sec / UAT] | [X] pm | [X] | [XX] |
| **4** | **Consulting** | | | | **[XX]** |
| 4.1 | [Business consulting / blueprint] | [XX] pm | [X] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| 4.2 | [Change-management consulting] | [XX] pm | [X] | [XX] | [XX] |
| **5** | **Training** | | | | **[XX]** |
| 5.1 | [System ops training] | [XX] persons | [X] batches | [XX] | [XX] |
| 5.2 | [Tech-transfer training] | [XX] persons | [X] batches | [XX] | [XX] |
| **6** | **Other** | | | | **[XX]** |
| 6.1 | [Project management] | [PMO / supervision] | — | — | [XX] |
| 6.2 | [Contingency] | [X% of total] | — | — | [XXX] |
| | **CAPEX total** | | | | **[XXXX]** |

#### 4.1.2 OPEX Detail (Annual)

| No. | Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|-----|------|----|----|----|----|----|
| 1 | Software maintenance / subscription | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| 2 | Hardware maintenance | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| 3 | Cloud / IDC | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| 4 | O&M personnel | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| 5 | Network / comms | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| 6 | Electricity | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| 7 | Upgrade / expansion | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| 8 | Training | [XX] | [X] | [X] | [X] | [X] |
| 9 | Other | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| | **Annual OPEX total** | **[XX]** | **[XX]** | **[XX]** | **[XX]** | **[XX]** |

### 4.2 Cash-Flow Analysis

| Item | Y0 (build) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|-----------|----|----|----|----|----|
| **Cash outflow** | | | | | | |
| CAPEX | [XXX] | [XXX] | — | — | — | — |
| OPEX | — | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| Outflow subtotal | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| **Cash inflow (benefit)** | | | | | | |
| Cost savings | — | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] |
| Revenue growth | — | [X] | [XX] | [XX] | [XXX] | [XXX] |
| Inflow subtotal | — | [XX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] | [XXX] |
| **Net cash flow** | **[-XXX]** | **[-XX]** | **[XX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXX]** |
| **Cumulative net cash flow** | **[-XXX]** | **[-XXX]** | **[-XX]** | **[XX]** | **[XXX]** | **[XXXX]** |

### 4.3 Core Financial Indicators

#### 4.3.1 Base Parameters

| Parameter | Value | Note |
|-----------|-------|------|
| Discount rate (WACC / hurdle) | [X.X%] | [e.g., group WACC or industry hurdle] |
| Evaluation period | 5 yrs | [can extend to 8 or 10] |
| Salvage rate | [X%] | [Asset residual at termination] |
| Inflation | [X%] | [for future cash-flow adjustment] |
| Tax rate | [X%] | [Corporate income tax] |

#### 4.3.2 Results

| Indicator | Value | Formula / Note | Meets? |
|-----------|-------|----------------|--------|
| **NPV** | [€XX M] | NPV = Σ[Ct ÷ (1+r)^t] − I₀ | ✅ > 0 |
| **IRR** | [XX.X%] | Discount rate where NPV = 0 | ✅ > [X%] |
| **MIRR** | [XX.X%] | With reinvestment rate | ✅ |
| **Payback (static)** | [X.X] yrs | Year cumulative turns positive | ✅ < [X] yrs |
| **Payback (discounted)** | [X.X] yrs | Year disc. cumulative turns positive | ✅ < [X] yrs |
| **BCR** | [X.X] | PV(benefits) ÷ PV(costs) | ✅ > 1.0 |
| **5-yr ROI** | [XX%] | (Total benefit − total cost) ÷ total cost ×100% | ✅ > [XX%] |

#### 4.3.3 Detailed Calculation

[Attach the year-by-year discounting table; see Appendix A-1.]

### 4.4 Funding Sources & Drawdown Plan

| Source | Amount (€M) | Share | Conditions |
|--------|-------------|-------|------------|
| Retained earnings | [XXX] | [XX%] | — |
| Dedicated agency budget | [XXX] | [XX%] | [Dedicated assessment] |
| Bank loan | [XXX] | [XX%] | [Rate X%, term X yrs] |
| Public green / infrastructure bond | [XXX] | [XX%] | [Quota approved] |
| Private capital | [XXX] | [XX%] | [XX model] |
| **Total** | **[XXXX]** | **100%** | — |

### 4.5 Depreciation & Tax

| Asset Class | Cost | Depr. Life | Salvage | Annual Depr. | Tax Effect |
|------------|------|-----------|---------|--------------|------------|
| Hardware | [XXX] | [5] yrs | [5%] | [XX] | [Deductible] |
| Software license | [XXX] | [3–5] yrs | [0%] | [XX] | [Amortizable] |
| Custom dev | [XXX] | [5] yrs | [0%] | [XX] | [Capitalized] |

---

## 5. Commercial Case

### 5.1 Procurement Strategy

| Package | Content | Method | Timing | Budget (€k) | Contract Type |
|---------|---------|--------|--------|-------------|---------------|
| Package 1 | [Platform SW + license] | [Open tender] | [YYYY-MM] | [XXX] | [Fixed price] |
| Package 2 | [Implementation] | [Selective / negotiated] | [YYYY-MM] | [XXX] | [Rate per pm] |
| Package 3 | [Hardware] | [Open tender / framework] | [YYYY-MM] | [XXX] | [Fixed price] |
| Package 4 | [Consulting] | [Negotiated] | [YYYY-MM] | [XX] | [Rate per pm] |

### 5.2 Procurement Strategy Notes

**Use EPC turnkey?** [Yes / No]
- Rationale: [Explain]
- If yes: turnkey contractor is [XX]; strength [XX]; risk [XX]

**Use joint-venture technical solution?** [Yes / No]
- Rationale: [Explain]

**Phase procurement?** [Yes / No]
- Rationale: [Explain]

### 5.3 Key Vendors / Partners

| Role | Candidate | Status | Key Consideration |
|------|-----------|--------|-------------------|
| Platform SW vendor | [A / B / C] | [Evaluating / Selected] | [Tech / price / service] |
| Implementation partner | [XX] | [Selected] | [Local delivery capability] |
| Hardware vendor | [XX] | [Framework agreement] | [Open-standards / sovereignty] |
| Consultant | [XX] | [Selected] | [Transport experience] |

### 5.4 Key Contract Terms

| Term | Requirement | Priority |
|------|-------------|----------|
| IPR | [Custom-dev IP to us / joint / source escrow] | P0 |
| Payment | [30-30-30-10 / milestone-based] | P0 |
| SLA & penalty | [Availability 99.9% / €XXk per incident / annual cap XX% of contract] | P0 |
| Warranty | [SW 12 mo / HW 36 mo] | P1 |
| Source escrow | [3rd-party escrow required] | P1 |
| Key-person lock | [Core staff not replaceable without client consent] | P1 |
| Exit clause | [Data migration & knowledge transfer on termination] | P0 |

---

## 6. Management Case

### 6.1 Project Governance

```
┌─────────────────────────────┐
│     Project Steering Board     │
│   (Sponsor + Business + IT + Finance)│
└─────────────┬───────────────┘
              │
    ┌─────────▼─────────┐
    │   Project Manager (PM)   │
    └─────────┬─────────┘
   ┌──────────┼──────────┐
   ▼          ▼          ▼
┌──────┐ ┌──────┐ ┌──────┐
│Biz   │ │Tech  │ │PMO   │
└──────┘ └──────┘ └──────┘
```

| Role | Name | Responsibility | Commitment |
|------|------|----------------|------------|
| Sponsor | [Name / title] | Resourcing, key decisions | — |
| Project Manager (PM) | [Name] | Day-to-day, schedule/quality/cost | Full-time |
| Business lead | [Name] | Requirement sign-off, UAT | 70%+ |
| Tech lead | [Name] | Architecture review, delivery quality | Full-time |
| Vendor PM | [Name] | Vendor-side delivery | Full-time |
| PMO / Supervisor | [Name] | Oversight, compliance | As needed |

### 6.2 Plan Summary

| Phase | Period | Main Work | Milestone | Deliverable |
|-------|--------|-----------|-----------|-------------|
| **Requirements & blueprint** | [YYYY.MM–YYYY.MM] | Research, blueprint | [Blueprint approved] | SRS, blueprint doc |
| **System design** | [YYYY.MM–YYYY.MM] | HLD, LLD | [Design approved] | HLD, LLD |
| **Dev & config** | [YYYY.MM–YYYY.MM] | Custom dev, config | [V1.0 internal release] | Code, config doc |
| **Testing** | [YYYY.MM–YYYY.MM] | SIT, UAT, perf | [UAT signed] | Test report, UAT sign-off |
| **Go-live prep** | [YYYY.MM–YYYY.MM] | Data migration, training, drill | [Go-live checklist] | Go-live plan, training records |
| **Go-live & transition** | [YYYY.MM] | Production, O&M handover | [Go-Live] | Go-live report, O&M manual |
| **Post-evaluation** | [3 mo post] | Benefit eval, lessons | [Post-eval report] | Post-eval report |

### 6.3 Organization & Resourcing

| Resource | Source | Qty | Period |
|----------|--------|-----|--------|
| PM | Internal | 1 | Full ([X] mo) |
| Business analyst | Internal loan | [X] | Requirements ([X] mo) |
| Architect | Internal + external | [X] | Full |
| Dev engineer | Vendor | [X] | Dev ([X] mo) |
| Test engineer | Internal + vendor | [X] | Test ([X] mo) |
| Data engineer | Vendor | [X] | Migration ([X] mo) |
| Trainer | Vendor | [X] | Training |
| O&M engineer | Internal | [X] | Long-term post go-live |

### 6.4 Key Risks

| ID | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Owner |
|----|------|------------|--------|------------|-------|
| R1 | [Frequent change → delay] | High | Med | [Requirement freeze + change control] | [PM] |
| R2 | [Data migration failure / loss] | Med | High | [Rehearsals + rollback + backup] | [Tech lead] |
| R3 | [Vendor delivery below par] | Med | High | [Milestone acceptance + staged pay + SLA] | [PM] |
| R4 | [Business resistance / low adoption] | Med | Med | [Change mgmt + exec push + quick wins] | [Sponsor] |
| R5 | [Key tech risk (perf / security)] | Low | High | [PoC + security assessment + 3rd-party test] | [Tech lead] |

### 6.5 Success Criteria

| ID | Criterion | Measurement | Target |
|----|-----------|-------------|-------|
| CS1 | On-time go-live | Actual vs plan | Slip ≤ 1 mo |
| CS2 | Within budget | Actual vs budget | Overrun ≤ 10% |
| CS3 | Requirements met | UAT pass rate | ≥ 95% |
| CS4 | Performance met | Perf test | All NF met |
| CS5 | User adoption | 3 mo post | Target-user usage ≥ 80% |
| CS6 | Benefit met | 1 yr post | Annual benefit attainment ≥ 80% |

---

## 7. Sensitivity Analysis

### 7.1 Single-Factor Sensitivity

| Factor | Range | NPV (€M) | IRR | Static Payback (yr) | Still Viable? |
|--------|-------|----------|-----|---------------------|---------------|
| **Base** | — | **[XXXX]** | **[XX.X%]** | **[X.X]** | ✅ |
| **Investment +** | +10% | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |
| | +20% | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |
| **Benefit −** | −10% | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |
| | −20% | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |
| **Delay** | +6 mo | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |
| | +12 mo | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |
| **Discount rate +** | +2 pts | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |
| | +4 pts | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |
| **OPEX +** | +10% | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [✅/⚠️/❌] |

### 7.2 Multi-Factor Scenarios

| Scenario | Condition Combo | NPV (€M) | IRR | Payback | Likelihood |
|----------|-----------------|----------|-----|---------|------------|
| **Optimistic** | Inv −5%, benefit +15%, on time | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [XX%] |
| **Base** | see 4.3.2 | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [XX%] |
| **Pessimistic** | Inv +15%, benefit −10%, +6 mo delay | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [XX%] |
| **Extreme** | Inv +25%, benefit −20%, +12 mo delay | [XXXX] | [XX.X%] | [X.X] | [XX%] |

### 7.3 Break-Even Analysis

| Break-even Point | Value | Note |
|------------------|-------|------|
| Benefit break-even | NPV=0 when benefit reaches [XX%] of plan | [Note] |
| Investment break-even | NPV=0 when investment +[XX%] | [Note] |
| Time break-even | NPV=0 when delayed [XX] mo | [Note] |

### 7.4 Monte Carlo Simulation (optional)

[If performed, attach results: NPV distribution, IRR distribution, VaR.]

> Based on 10,000 simulations, P(NPV > 0) = [XX%]; NPV 90% CI = [€XXXX, €XXXX] M.

### 7.5 Tornado (key variables by NPV impact)

[Rank key variables by NPV impact, largest first:]
1. [Benefit realization rate]: largest; ±1% → ±[€XX M] NPV
2. [Total investment]: ±1% → ±[€XX M] NPV
3. [Delivery period]: ±1 mo → ±[€XX M] NPV
4. ...

---

## 8. Conclusions & Recommendations

### 8.1 Overall Conclusion

[2–3 summarizing paragraphs covering:]

**Strategic necessity:** [This project is necessary to deliver XX strategy / regulation; doing nothing risks XX.]

**Economic viability:** [NPV>0, IRR=[XX%] exceeds hurdle [XX%], payback [X.X] yrs acceptable. Even in the pessimistic case NPV remains [pos / neg].]

**Delivery viability:** [Mature tech / reference cases exist; organization ready; risk controllable.]

### 8.2 Recommendation

**Decision:** [✅ Approve launch / ⚠️ Approve with conditions / ❌ Do not launch]

**Preconditions if approved:**
1. [Condition 1, e.g., complete vendor selection for XX system]
2. [Condition 2, e.g., secure dedicated budget €XX M]
3. [Condition 3, e.g., org restructure done, CDO on board]

**Suggested start if approved:** [YYYY Q X]

### 8.3 Next Steps

| No. | Next Step | Owner | Due |
|-----|-----------|-------|-----|
| 1 | [Complete vendor selection & contracting] | [Procurement / IT] | [Date] |
| 2 | [Stand up project team] | [HR / IT] | [Date] |
| 3 | [Write detailed SRS] | [Business / IT] | [Date] |
| 4 | [Complete detailed tech design] | [Tech team] | [Date] |
| 5 | [Launch change management] | [DTO] | [Date] |

---

## 9. Appendices

### Appendix A: Financial Calculation Schedules

#### A-1 Year-by-Year Discounted Cash Flow

| Year | Cash Flow (€k) | Discount Factor (r=[X%]) | Discounted CF | Cumulative Disc. CF |
|------|----------------|---------------------------|---------------|---------------------|
| Y0 | [-XXX] | 1.000 | [-XXX] | [-XXX] |
| Y1 | [-XX] | 0.[XXX] | [-XX] | [-XXX] |
| Y2 | [XX] | 0.[XXX] | [XX] | [-XX] |
| Y3 | [XXX] | 0.[XXX] | [XX] | [XX] |
| Y4 | [XXX] | 0.[XXX] | [XX] | [XXX] |
| Y5 | [XXX] | 0.[XXX] | [XX] | [XXXX] |

**NPV = Y5 cumulative discounted CF = [€XXXX M]**

#### A-2 IRR (trial method)

| Discount Rate | NPV |
|---------------|-----|
| r = [XX%] | [XXX] |
| r = [XX%] | [XX] |
| r = IRR | 0 |
| r = [XX%] | [-XX] |
| r = [XX%] | [-XXX] |

**Linear interpolation: IRR ≈ [XX.X%]**

#### A-3 Static Payback

| Year | Net CF | Cumulative Net CF |
|------|--------|-------------------|
| Y0 | [-XXX] | [-XXX] |
| Y1 | [-XX] | [-XXX] |
| Y2 | [XX] | [-XX] |
| Y3 | [XXX] | [XX] ← turns positive |

**Static payback = 2 + [XX]/[XXX] = [X.X] yrs**

### Appendix B: Social-Benefit Monetization Reference

| Benefit | Method | Parameter / Basis | Annual Monetized Value |
|--------|--------|-------------------|------------------------|
| Travel-time saving | Value of time | [€XX] / (person·hr), [XX]k hrs/yr saved | [€XXX M] |
| Crash reduction | Value of statistical life | VSL ≈ [€XX M] / life, [XX] fewer deaths/yr | [€XXX M] |
| Emission reduction | Carbon price | [€XX] / t CO₂, [XXX] t/yr | [€X.X M] |

> **Note:** Social-benefit monetization values are for reference only and are NOT included in NPV/IRR.

### Appendix C: Industry Benchmark Data

| Metric | This Project | Industry Avg | Benchmark Project | Source |
|--------|--------------|-------------|-------------------|--------|
| NPV / investment | [X.X] | [X.X] | [X.X] | [Source] |
| IRR | [XX%] | [XX%] | [XX%] | [Source] |
| Payback | [X.X] yrs | [X.X] yrs | [X.X] yrs | [Source] |
| Unit build cost | [€XX M/km] | [€XX M/km] | [€XX M/km] | [Industry data] |

### Appendix D: Assumption Notes

[List all key calculation assumptions and sources, e.g., average labor cost per [regional stats office 202X transport avg wage €XX k/yr].]

| Assumption | Value | Basis / Source |
|-----------|-------|----------------|
| Avg labor cost | [€X] k/person-yr | [Source] |
| Discount rate | [X.X%] | [Source] |
| Equipment life | [X] yrs | [Industry norm] |
| Benefit ramp (Y1/Y2/Y3) | [XX%/XX%/100%] | [Analogous project] |
| ... | ... | ... |

### Appendix E: Terms & Acronyms

| Acronym | Full Name | Note |
|---------|-----------|------|
| NPV | Net Present Value | |
| IRR | Internal Rate of Return | |
| MIRR | Modified Internal Rate of Return | |
| BCR | Benefit-Cost Ratio | |
| TCO | Total Cost of Ownership | |
| CAPEX | Capital Expenditure | |
| OPEX | Operating Expenditure | |
| WACC | Weighted Average Cost of Capital | |
| VSL | Value of a Statistical Life | |

---

> **Prepared by:** [Finance / Strategy / IT joint working group]
> **Reviewed by:** [CFO / Strategy lead]
> **Approved by:** [GM / Board]
>
> **Version history:**
> | Version | Date | Change | Author |
> |---------|------|--------|--------|
> | V1.0 | [YYYY-MM-DD] | First draft | [Name] |
